The State of the Lion's Draft: Post Free Agency Blitz
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Prologue:
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Free Agency has shaken up the draft board considerably. Team needs have been shuffled from Quarterback to Defensive Line and from Offensive Line to Defensive Back. The Lions have made their very own splash into the Free Agency Pool. The signings of Jon Kitna and Josh McCown, when coupled with the public announcement of the letting go of Joey Harrington, suggest that the Lions have finally found a solution -even if only temporary- to their recent quarterback woes. Corey Bradford adds one more target in the passing game, and the re-signing of Kalimba Edwards keeps the defensive line in passable condition for at least one more year. The main needs on the team are along the offensive front and in the defensive backfield. With Earl Holmes gone, a need is present at linebacker as well. Teddy Lehman has the ability to play either inside or outside, so a prospect at either OLB or ILB is needed.
With the top picks rearranged by the signings of Drew Brees in New Orleans and Patrick Ramsey in Ney York, it appears that either Jay Cutler or Vince Young will be slipping come draft day. In one form or another, it appears the first four picks in the draft will be Reggie Bush, Mario Williams, Matt Leinart, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Should Leinart be taken by the Titans at #3, the Jets may take a gamble on Vince Young at #4; however, it is more likely that they will grab the surest thing in D'Brickashaw Ferguson. If the Titans take Ferguson at #3, Jets fans will be pinching themselves at the chance to acquire Leinart with the fourth pick of the draft. AJ Hawk appears to be signed, sealed, and delivered to the Packers at #5. The Raiders appear to be going with either Cutler or Young at #7. Both are viable options; but, knowing Al Davis, he will fall in love with Vince Young's athleticism and select him over the more refined Jay Cutler. At #8, the Bills are enamored with Haloti Ngata to anchor the middle of their defensive front.
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The Guts:
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The wild card is San Francisco at #6. Their pick dictates the path that the Lions take throughout the rest of the entire draft. Should they choose to rememdy the weakest area of their defense, Michael Huff makes the most sense at Safety. If they choose to make Alex Smith more comfortable by adding an offensive weapon, Vernon Davis makes perfect sense. They also might trade down with either Saint Louis or Denver, both of whom would be desiring the freakish Terrapin Tight End, Vernon Davis.
Given what the 49ers have invested in Alex Smith, I expect them to take Vernon Davis if they decide to keep the pick. This means that the Lions will be presented with the following options:
(1) Linebacker - After AJ Hawk, the class of linebackers gets incredibly deep and rather murky as to who is the best of the rest. Ernie Sims from Florida State has all the athleticism one could ever ask for, but he is vastly undersized at 5'11/230. Lofty comparisons to Derrick Brooks could give Rod Marinelli the jitters come draft day, but Sims is simply not worthy of a top ten pick. Chad Greenway of Iowa looks like a gazelle on the field during game film, but he ran a horrific 4.75 at the combine. Bobby Carpenter from Ohio State is as well-rounded a prospect in the class, but he lacks the top tier measureables to garner a top ten pick. One way or another, there is no value in drafting a linebacker besides AJ Hawk in the top ten. He will be long gone by #9.
(2) Offensive Line - After D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Winston Justice of USC is the next best thing. He is largely considered a top ten prospect and has the athleticism to play either on the left or right side as a tackle. He has the speed to attack the second level of the opposition and a frame to add the size and strength required to take on anyone that the NFL can throw at him. The drawback to Justice is that he is still quite raw. In addition, he has had his character questioned due to off-the-field issues stemming from his immaturity. Both of these question marks should be exactly what the Lions are trying to avoid in the draft. In the weak NFC North, the Lions need to realize that they are a handful of polished players away from making a 9-7 playoff-bound statement. In my opinion, Justice does not make sense, particularly because there is extraordinary depth in the Offensive Tackle field this year. Players that are more game-ready will be available both in round two and three this year.
(3) Defensive Back - Michael Huff is the premier defensive back in the draft class. He has everything that any team could ask out of either a safety or a cornerback. At 6'0"/205, he has excellent size. Running at 4.34, he has premier speed. His production in college was second to none. He recorded 109 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and 14 pass defenses this season. He spent time split wide at cornerback when Texas faced a suprememly talented receiver. But, Huff made most of his damage from the safety spot where he showed excellent range and ball-hawking skills as well as sure-handed tackling technique. The biggest drawback to Huff is that he falls neither under the title of safety or corner exclusively. He will eventually have to focus on one discipline. In the meantime, his versatility would be perfect for the Lions. Until he gets his feet wet, Huff could act as an incredibly versatile nickelback. Once the rookie bugs are gone, he would make a much more viable option at Safety than Terrance Holt. Huff makes the most sense for the Lions. Assuming that the 49ers take a pass on the Longhorn's DB, I would expect the Lions to invest their 2007 first-round pick into Michael Huff.
(4) Wide Receiver - Just Kidding!
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Epilogue:
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The one player that could throw a giant kink into the thought processes of the Lions coaching and management would be Vince Young falling to #9. With the Raiders prefering a more field-ready Quarterback, I would not at all be surprised to see Cutler land at #7 and Young to fall down the board. He would present the Lions with a future Superman at the most influential position on the field. This would be tough to pass on. However, I contest that the Lions should remain steadfast in filling their needs. Michael Huff gives them a chance to win tomorrow by dominating on defense. This is more important than flipping a coin for a superstar. Let the Cardinals or Ravens take that chance. The Lions are in a position to be taking the surest things available.
The 49ers taking Michael Huff at #6 would put a lot of pressure on the Lions. Winston Justice would appear to be the obvious choice for the Lions at that point. In this case, there are trade down possiblities as well. However, all signs are pointing to the #6 pick being Vernon Davis one way or another. San Francisco has expressed great interest into moving down the draft board since they have so many needs and not enough picks to address them in the early roundst. The Denver Broncos have tons of firepower with both the 15th and 22nd pick in the first round. They would also love a premier Tight End, especially after having lost cap-casualty Jeb Putzier. I digress.
The Lions need a DB, OT, and LB at the very least. At pick #9, only Michael Huff presents the right value to justify a selection. Winston Justice is a close second due to his upside, but the deep field of playable Offensive Tackles suggests that there is value to be had in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to fill that need.
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To be continued...
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I will examine the rest of the Lion's Day One needs on Thursday. I will dissect the depth present at OT, LB, and DE to determine where the best value will likely be found come draft day. Stay Tuned....
Prologue:
-------------------
Free Agency has shaken up the draft board considerably. Team needs have been shuffled from Quarterback to Defensive Line and from Offensive Line to Defensive Back. The Lions have made their very own splash into the Free Agency Pool. The signings of Jon Kitna and Josh McCown, when coupled with the public announcement of the letting go of Joey Harrington, suggest that the Lions have finally found a solution -even if only temporary- to their recent quarterback woes. Corey Bradford adds one more target in the passing game, and the re-signing of Kalimba Edwards keeps the defensive line in passable condition for at least one more year. The main needs on the team are along the offensive front and in the defensive backfield. With Earl Holmes gone, a need is present at linebacker as well. Teddy Lehman has the ability to play either inside or outside, so a prospect at either OLB or ILB is needed.
With the top picks rearranged by the signings of Drew Brees in New Orleans and Patrick Ramsey in Ney York, it appears that either Jay Cutler or Vince Young will be slipping come draft day. In one form or another, it appears the first four picks in the draft will be Reggie Bush, Mario Williams, Matt Leinart, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Should Leinart be taken by the Titans at #3, the Jets may take a gamble on Vince Young at #4; however, it is more likely that they will grab the surest thing in D'Brickashaw Ferguson. If the Titans take Ferguson at #3, Jets fans will be pinching themselves at the chance to acquire Leinart with the fourth pick of the draft. AJ Hawk appears to be signed, sealed, and delivered to the Packers at #5. The Raiders appear to be going with either Cutler or Young at #7. Both are viable options; but, knowing Al Davis, he will fall in love with Vince Young's athleticism and select him over the more refined Jay Cutler. At #8, the Bills are enamored with Haloti Ngata to anchor the middle of their defensive front.
-------------------
The Guts:
-------------------
The wild card is San Francisco at #6. Their pick dictates the path that the Lions take throughout the rest of the entire draft. Should they choose to rememdy the weakest area of their defense, Michael Huff makes the most sense at Safety. If they choose to make Alex Smith more comfortable by adding an offensive weapon, Vernon Davis makes perfect sense. They also might trade down with either Saint Louis or Denver, both of whom would be desiring the freakish Terrapin Tight End, Vernon Davis.
Given what the 49ers have invested in Alex Smith, I expect them to take Vernon Davis if they decide to keep the pick. This means that the Lions will be presented with the following options:
Is Ernie Sims worthy of a top ten pick?
(1) Linebacker - After AJ Hawk, the class of linebackers gets incredibly deep and rather murky as to who is the best of the rest. Ernie Sims from Florida State has all the athleticism one could ever ask for, but he is vastly undersized at 5'11/230. Lofty comparisons to Derrick Brooks could give Rod Marinelli the jitters come draft day, but Sims is simply not worthy of a top ten pick. Chad Greenway of Iowa looks like a gazelle on the field during game film, but he ran a horrific 4.75 at the combine. Bobby Carpenter from Ohio State is as well-rounded a prospect in the class, but he lacks the top tier measureables to garner a top ten pick. One way or another, there is no value in drafting a linebacker besides AJ Hawk in the top ten. He will be long gone by #9.
Is Winston Justice the refined product the Lions need?
(2) Offensive Line - After D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Winston Justice of USC is the next best thing. He is largely considered a top ten prospect and has the athleticism to play either on the left or right side as a tackle. He has the speed to attack the second level of the opposition and a frame to add the size and strength required to take on anyone that the NFL can throw at him. The drawback to Justice is that he is still quite raw. In addition, he has had his character questioned due to off-the-field issues stemming from his immaturity. Both of these question marks should be exactly what the Lions are trying to avoid in the draft. In the weak NFC North, the Lions need to realize that they are a handful of polished players away from making a 9-7 playoff-bound statement. In my opinion, Justice does not make sense, particularly because there is extraordinary depth in the Offensive Tackle field this year. Players that are more game-ready will be available both in round two and three this year.
Michael Huff appears to be the Lion's guy
(3) Defensive Back - Michael Huff is the premier defensive back in the draft class. He has everything that any team could ask out of either a safety or a cornerback. At 6'0"/205, he has excellent size. Running at 4.34, he has premier speed. His production in college was second to none. He recorded 109 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and 14 pass defenses this season. He spent time split wide at cornerback when Texas faced a suprememly talented receiver. But, Huff made most of his damage from the safety spot where he showed excellent range and ball-hawking skills as well as sure-handed tackling technique. The biggest drawback to Huff is that he falls neither under the title of safety or corner exclusively. He will eventually have to focus on one discipline. In the meantime, his versatility would be perfect for the Lions. Until he gets his feet wet, Huff could act as an incredibly versatile nickelback. Once the rookie bugs are gone, he would make a much more viable option at Safety than Terrance Holt. Huff makes the most sense for the Lions. Assuming that the 49ers take a pass on the Longhorn's DB, I would expect the Lions to invest their 2007 first-round pick into Michael Huff.
(4) Wide Receiver - Just Kidding!
-------------------
Epilogue:
-------------------
The one player that could throw a giant kink into the thought processes of the Lions coaching and management would be Vince Young falling to #9. With the Raiders prefering a more field-ready Quarterback, I would not at all be surprised to see Cutler land at #7 and Young to fall down the board. He would present the Lions with a future Superman at the most influential position on the field. This would be tough to pass on. However, I contest that the Lions should remain steadfast in filling their needs. Michael Huff gives them a chance to win tomorrow by dominating on defense. This is more important than flipping a coin for a superstar. Let the Cardinals or Ravens take that chance. The Lions are in a position to be taking the surest things available.
Vince Young could throw a loop into the plan
The 49ers taking Michael Huff at #6 would put a lot of pressure on the Lions. Winston Justice would appear to be the obvious choice for the Lions at that point. In this case, there are trade down possiblities as well. However, all signs are pointing to the #6 pick being Vernon Davis one way or another. San Francisco has expressed great interest into moving down the draft board since they have so many needs and not enough picks to address them in the early roundst. The Denver Broncos have tons of firepower with both the 15th and 22nd pick in the first round. They would also love a premier Tight End, especially after having lost cap-casualty Jeb Putzier. I digress.
The Lions need a DB, OT, and LB at the very least. At pick #9, only Michael Huff presents the right value to justify a selection. Winston Justice is a close second due to his upside, but the deep field of playable Offensive Tackles suggests that there is value to be had in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to fill that need.
-------------------
To be continued...
-------------------
I will examine the rest of the Lion's Day One needs on Thursday. I will dissect the depth present at OT, LB, and DE to determine where the best value will likely be found come draft day. Stay Tuned....