Nfl.com Cover Article
Is the draft logic starting to shape up?
By: Pat Kirwan, NFL.com Senior Analyst
This article is flawed. The article makes it clear that there are "not more than 15 players with a real first-round grade." (Anonymous NFL GM) This opinion is held by virtually every talent evaluator in the NFL. After 15, it gets mighty murky until the middle of the second round. The talent gradient becomes much less substantial and it becomes much more difficult to differentiate the obvious first-rounders from the likely first-rounders.
Nevertheless, Mr. Pat Kirwan apparently has sage-like abilities as he has labeled 29 (yes twenty-nine) players as "obvious players that have little to no chance of ever dropping out of the first round." Many of his picks are very objectionable. Here is what I consider the list of the "clear cut" top 15 players to be, and where I consider his "obvious" 29 to be greatly flawed.
Top 15 Prospects:
(1) Reggie Bush, RB
(2) D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT
(3) Mario Williams, DE
(4) Matt Leinart, QB
(5) AJ Hawk, OLB
(6) Haloti Ngata, DT
(7) Vince Young, QB
(8) Vernon Davis, TE
(9) Jay Cutler, QB
(10) Michael Huff, S
(11) Deangelo Williams, RB
(12) Chad Greenway, OLB
(13) Santonio Holmes, WR
(14) Chad Jackson, WR
**I am cutting this list short at 14. It gets hazy after that.**
Here is the next cut of talent:
- LenDale White, RB
- Jimmy Williams, CB
- Winston Justice, OT
- Tamba Hali, DE
- Demeco Ryans, OLB
- Antonio Cromartie, CB
** I consider all of these players worthy of the distinction of #15. In other words, none of them are singularly worthy of the distinction. **
Major discrepancies with the article:
(1) Chad Jackson, WR - Chad was widely considered a late first-rounder before the combine. If he fell to the Steelers at 32, I can tell you personally that he will be gobbled up long before the 15m time for the selection expires. Projected to run a 4.45, he busted off a 4.32 at the combine. This places Chad Jackson among the elite players in the draft. He is competing with Santonio Holmes for the distinction as the #1 receiver chosen. At 6'2" 201, Jackson has more size than Holmes (5'11" 187), and -at 4.32- Jackson possess the blazing speed that Santonio does. Holmes is the better route-runner and is a much better blocker, but Jackson has the better hands and a much better vertical jump. The teams looking at WR during the middle stages of the first round (PHI, DAL, SD) appear to be in the midst of a "Chocolate/Vanilla" decision. Do you want a Steve Smith (Santonio Holmes)? or Javon Walker (Chad Jackson)? Somehow, Kirwin does not include Chad Jackson among the 29 "obvious" first rounders. He is way off base in doing so.
(2) Mercedes Lewis, TE - With all the Tight Ends that left early for the draft, Lewis has been lost in the mix. Leonard Pope is clearly the better prospect as he is bigger, stronger, much faster, and possesses better ball skills. Lewis just recently ran a 4.80 at the combine. This puts him in the mix with Dominique Byrd and Anthony Fasano as 2nd/3rd round picks. Mercedes Lewis will not go in the first round. He may end up falling past the 2nd.
(3) Max Jean-Giles, OG - Jean-Giles is clearly a dominating force. At 6'4" 355, he is certainly an immovable object. However, he has struggled with speed rushers, he rarely gets to the second-level, and he struggles greatly with his weight. At 5.50 speed, he is likely to be drafted somewhere from 40-60. Charles Spencer from Pittsburgh has become widely considered the best OG in the draft class after his combine performance. He has put on 20 pounds of mass to be in the same 6'4" 355 class as Jean-Giles, yet he appears surprising nimble, retaining his 5.28 speed and impressing during other agility drills.
(4) Rod Wright, DT - This selection by Mr. Kirwin is almost as ridiculous as (5) upcoming. Only two DT's are assured of being drafted during the first round: Haloti Ngata and Brodrick Bunkley. Gabe Watson from Michigan, a classic run-stuffing force who was asked to not participate during certain plays at the Senior Bowl practices so that the team could gets reps running up the middle, dominates at the point of attack and is a perfect fit for the 3-4 and great fit for the 4-3. He is the #3 DT in the draft class, but even he may slip to the second (although I project him going in the 20-30 range). Rod Wright is not even on the First-round map.
(5) Alan Zematis, CB - Peyote is the only explanation for this selection. Zematis is a Day One Pick, nothing more. He will be selected in the 3rd Round. He has size at 6'2" 201, but he runs a 4.50. This is slow by CB standards at the next level. He projects as a nickel back who will act mostly in zone packages and run support situations. With his poor speed, he will be unable to cover #1's and most #2's in man-to-man situations. Insert Antonio Cromartie from Florida State. He is one of the most intriguing players in the draft. Coming off of ACL surgery and lacking experience having only played five games this past season, he is a gigantic question mark. However, during his limited field time, he has been totally dominant. In workouts, even coming off the surgery, he has been a workout wonder. At 6'3" 210, he has incredible size. Within the last month, he was reported running a 4.29 on FSU grass. His injury has also checked out as healed by the FSU Athletic Training staff. Cromartie could go as high as 6-SF or 13-BAL. Realistically, he will go 15-ATL/19-SD/25-NYG range. Nevertheless, he is bigger, stronger, and faster than Alan Zematis who is considered a "Day One Pick" and nothing more.