J-E-T-S; JETS, BRONCOS, TEXANS?!?!
*** This is my last blog until Saturday, 3/11 ***
The Jets are a troubled franchise at the moment. This is more than well documented. Interestingly enough, following Curtis Martin's revival in '04 and the return of Chad Pennington, the Jets were predicted by some to upend the Patriots and win the AFC East this past season. Curtis Martin ran out of BenGay and Chad Pennington's rubber arm turned to glass. Sure enough, the Jets were not in the playoff hunt, but in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes come December.
With the CBA decision being delayed until Sunday night at 10am, and subsequently free agency on delay as well, advantageous usage of time has been the Jets best friend. Come Sunday night, the Jets will be processing a semi-large deal with the Denver Broncos. For the 29th overall pick in the first round, the Broncos will receive John Abraham. There are multiple implications of this deal.
For the Jets, they rid themselves of the headache that has been John Abraham. Abraham has either been injured or requesting a new contract these past few years. With the cap hovering dangerously low and the Jet's payroll drowningly high, The Jets must get rid of Abraham and his fat contract. A first round pick is more than ample compensation. Granted, we are talking about one of the top five defensive lineman in football. However, it is very rare that a team will trade its frist round pick for anyone. A first round pick will become a cornerstone for the future of your franchise. Honestly, the Jets are simply glad to get rid of Abraham. The first-round pick is just gravy. But, wait one second. It appears that gravy is going to be poured on the mashed potatos that is the 4th overall pick to move up to the first pick in the draft. What red-blooded NFL franchise, from Texas no less, can refuse mashed potatos and gravy? Putting my ridiculous extended methaphor aside, the 4th and 29th pick for the 1st pick will certainly be the best offer than the Texans will be receiving. On the NFL's "Draft Pick Trade Value Chart", the #1 pick is worth 3000 points. The Jets package of the 4th (2200) and the 28th (700) is certainly in the ballpark of a fair deal. Considering the potential, this is a no-brainer for the Texans. The Jets will get their "win now" QB in Matt Leinart, giving themselves a chance to make that run for the division.
For the Broncos, this is a great deal. It is expected that the Broncos will be using their #22 pick on Florida recevier, Chad Jackson. This leaves ther #29 pick to address the defensive line, presumably on Mathias Kiwanuka. However, given the beatdown that Kiwanuka received at the hands of D'Brickashaw Ferguson during the Senior Bowl, Kiwanuka's freakish athleticsim is certainly trumped by his horrible technique and poor leverage at 6'7". John Abraham is ten times the defesive end that Kiwanuka is currently, as twice the player that Kiwanuka will ever be. In other words, the Broncos receive moer value in Abraham than they ever will out of Kiwanuka. To boot, the cap has forced the team to release Trevor Pryce. Pryce is one of the best Ends in the league at stopping the run. Ultimately, he is a glorified DT. Nevertheless, losing Pryce, the Broncos would like a veteran presence back on their line. That would also like to improve upon the 10 sacks that were compiled by their defensive front last year. Abraham managed 10.5 alone last season.
Expect the official annoucement of this trade tomorrow (Saturday). Expect massive speculation to follow. Here are a couple scenarios that I have conjured for the picks that will follow after the trade:
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Scenario 1:
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(1) Jets (f/Texans) - Matt Leinart
(2) Saints - Vince Young
(3) Titans - Reggie Bush
(4) Texans (f/Jets) - D'Brickashaw Ferguson
(29) Texans (f/Jets) - Darnell Bing, S. USC
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Scenario 2:
------------
(1) Jets (f/Texans) - Matt Leinart
(2) Saints - Jay Cutler
(3) Titans - Vince Young
(4) Texans (f/Jets) - Reggie Bush
(29) Texans (f/Jets) - Eric Winston, OT. Miami
Scenario (1) is most likely. The Texans will move down, lose the chance to acquire Reggie Bush, but grab the player that they NEED the most: D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Ferguson will be a book-end on that line for the next ten years. He presents more value to the team than does Bush. Ulatimately, the Texans already have Dominick Davis, a 1400 yard/year back who also grabs 40-60 receptions out of the backfield. In addition, they have a young, Pro-Bowl return man in Jerome Mathis already. The most pressing need on their team is O-Line, and no one could help them more than the best pass-blocking prospect since Orlando Pace.
If Scenario (2) occurs, expect the Texans management to jump at Bush. However, I would contest that there would be more value in moving down again. At #6, the 49ers would love to acquire Reggie Bush. Not only is Bush the flashy RB that they have been desiring for years; but, he was the former high school teammate of Alex Smith. Believe me, the 49ers want nothing more than to increase the comfort level of their marquee QB. Bush would accomplish this for certain. The Texans could acquire the 49ers early second-round pick in the exchange, and still manage the player that they desire. The Packers have no need for a tackle. Their move will be defensive at #5, leaving D'Brickashaw Ferguson avaialable for the taking by the Texans at #6. In the meantime, the Texans will have drafted the guy they need the most while acquiring picks 29 and 37. Add that to their 33rd pick and the fact that this draft has one of the deepest second-rounds in history, and the Texans will be able to dress numerous needs at Safety and Interior Line. Again, this is unlikely to occur, but it is worth mentioning.
Ultimately, this trade between the Broncos and Jets is probably the last piece of the puzzle to acquire Matt Leinart. For the Texans, they must not lose sight of the value in D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Even if Bush falls back into their lap at #4, the Texans must realize the value in D'Brickashaw Ferguson and moving down yet again to acquire more picks. This much we know is true: The Jets want Leinart. The Texans want a lot for the #1 pick. The Broncos want a veteran DE. The Jets want rid of Abraham. The Broncos have two first-rounders. The Jets will acquire the firepower necessary to move to #1 by trading Abraham for the 29th pick.
The Jets are a troubled franchise at the moment. This is more than well documented. Interestingly enough, following Curtis Martin's revival in '04 and the return of Chad Pennington, the Jets were predicted by some to upend the Patriots and win the AFC East this past season. Curtis Martin ran out of BenGay and Chad Pennington's rubber arm turned to glass. Sure enough, the Jets were not in the playoff hunt, but in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes come December.
With the CBA decision being delayed until Sunday night at 10am, and subsequently free agency on delay as well, advantageous usage of time has been the Jets best friend. Come Sunday night, the Jets will be processing a semi-large deal with the Denver Broncos. For the 29th overall pick in the first round, the Broncos will receive John Abraham. There are multiple implications of this deal.
For the Jets, they rid themselves of the headache that has been John Abraham. Abraham has either been injured or requesting a new contract these past few years. With the cap hovering dangerously low and the Jet's payroll drowningly high, The Jets must get rid of Abraham and his fat contract. A first round pick is more than ample compensation. Granted, we are talking about one of the top five defensive lineman in football. However, it is very rare that a team will trade its frist round pick for anyone. A first round pick will become a cornerstone for the future of your franchise. Honestly, the Jets are simply glad to get rid of Abraham. The first-round pick is just gravy. But, wait one second. It appears that gravy is going to be poured on the mashed potatos that is the 4th overall pick to move up to the first pick in the draft. What red-blooded NFL franchise, from Texas no less, can refuse mashed potatos and gravy? Putting my ridiculous extended methaphor aside, the 4th and 29th pick for the 1st pick will certainly be the best offer than the Texans will be receiving. On the NFL's "Draft Pick Trade Value Chart", the #1 pick is worth 3000 points. The Jets package of the 4th (2200) and the 28th (700) is certainly in the ballpark of a fair deal. Considering the potential, this is a no-brainer for the Texans. The Jets will get their "win now" QB in Matt Leinart, giving themselves a chance to make that run for the division.
For the Broncos, this is a great deal. It is expected that the Broncos will be using their #22 pick on Florida recevier, Chad Jackson. This leaves ther #29 pick to address the defensive line, presumably on Mathias Kiwanuka. However, given the beatdown that Kiwanuka received at the hands of D'Brickashaw Ferguson during the Senior Bowl, Kiwanuka's freakish athleticsim is certainly trumped by his horrible technique and poor leverage at 6'7". John Abraham is ten times the defesive end that Kiwanuka is currently, as twice the player that Kiwanuka will ever be. In other words, the Broncos receive moer value in Abraham than they ever will out of Kiwanuka. To boot, the cap has forced the team to release Trevor Pryce. Pryce is one of the best Ends in the league at stopping the run. Ultimately, he is a glorified DT. Nevertheless, losing Pryce, the Broncos would like a veteran presence back on their line. That would also like to improve upon the 10 sacks that were compiled by their defensive front last year. Abraham managed 10.5 alone last season.
Expect the official annoucement of this trade tomorrow (Saturday). Expect massive speculation to follow. Here are a couple scenarios that I have conjured for the picks that will follow after the trade:
------------
Scenario 1:
------------
(1) Jets (f/Texans) - Matt Leinart
(2) Saints - Vince Young
(3) Titans - Reggie Bush
(4) Texans (f/Jets) - D'Brickashaw Ferguson
(29) Texans (f/Jets) - Darnell Bing, S. USC
------------
Scenario 2:
------------
(1) Jets (f/Texans) - Matt Leinart
(2) Saints - Jay Cutler
(3) Titans - Vince Young
(4) Texans (f/Jets) - Reggie Bush
(29) Texans (f/Jets) - Eric Winston, OT. Miami
Scenario (1) is most likely. The Texans will move down, lose the chance to acquire Reggie Bush, but grab the player that they NEED the most: D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Ferguson will be a book-end on that line for the next ten years. He presents more value to the team than does Bush. Ulatimately, the Texans already have Dominick Davis, a 1400 yard/year back who also grabs 40-60 receptions out of the backfield. In addition, they have a young, Pro-Bowl return man in Jerome Mathis already. The most pressing need on their team is O-Line, and no one could help them more than the best pass-blocking prospect since Orlando Pace.
If Scenario (2) occurs, expect the Texans management to jump at Bush. However, I would contest that there would be more value in moving down again. At #6, the 49ers would love to acquire Reggie Bush. Not only is Bush the flashy RB that they have been desiring for years; but, he was the former high school teammate of Alex Smith. Believe me, the 49ers want nothing more than to increase the comfort level of their marquee QB. Bush would accomplish this for certain. The Texans could acquire the 49ers early second-round pick in the exchange, and still manage the player that they desire. The Packers have no need for a tackle. Their move will be defensive at #5, leaving D'Brickashaw Ferguson avaialable for the taking by the Texans at #6. In the meantime, the Texans will have drafted the guy they need the most while acquiring picks 29 and 37. Add that to their 33rd pick and the fact that this draft has one of the deepest second-rounds in history, and the Texans will be able to dress numerous needs at Safety and Interior Line. Again, this is unlikely to occur, but it is worth mentioning.
Ultimately, this trade between the Broncos and Jets is probably the last piece of the puzzle to acquire Matt Leinart. For the Texans, they must not lose sight of the value in D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Even if Bush falls back into their lap at #4, the Texans must realize the value in D'Brickashaw Ferguson and moving down yet again to acquire more picks. This much we know is true: The Jets want Leinart. The Texans want a lot for the #1 pick. The Broncos want a veteran DE. The Jets want rid of Abraham. The Broncos have two first-rounders. The Jets will acquire the firepower necessary to move to #1 by trading Abraham for the 29th pick.